Understanding Disease Spread One Math Model at a Time

You may see Matthew Johnston, associate professor in the Department of Math and Computer Science, around Lawrence Technological University’s College of Arts and Sciences. Professor Johnston has recently been awarded tenure and has been greatly involved in both initiating and understanding the spread of infectious diseases.

When asked about his thoughts on attaining tenure, Johnston was enthusiastic: “The Lawrence Tech community has felt like my family since the day I stepped onto campus, and I am incredibly excited to be able to build my career here.” He sees teaching as “awesome,” a profession that not only inspires but motivates and assists students in reaching their potential and dreams through instruction, investigation, and practice. Johnston enjoys all aspects of teaching, but his favorite moments are the ‘ah-ha’ ones. “My favorite moments are those when the students understand a challenging concept for the first time, like the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus or a tricky integral in an unusual coordinate system, and the light bulb goes on in their head. Helping students get to that point is incredibly gratifying.” To help students tackle complex math problems and allow them to not only understand but also see the application of such knowledge is not only fulfilling but also inspiring. To bestow knowledge and allow students to take the lead with such information to change the world is rewarding and a prime reason why Johnston wanted to become a university professor and loves every bit of teaching.

As a tenured professor, Johnston looks forward to being more involved in the administrative and leadership aspects of the University. As much as he enjoys being in the classroom, Johnston also enjoys helping students grow through research. Participating in research provides students with hands-on experience with their technical skills, embodying the “theory and practice” LTU is known for.

Johnston received a two-year National Science Foundation LEAPS (Launching Early-Career Academic Pathways in the Mathematical and Physical Sciences) grant, which started in the fall of 2022. The title of the grant is "Incorporating Stratification by Vaccination Status and Virus Variants in Mathematical Models of Infectious Disease Spread," and Johnston was awarded $242,192. The grant supports several students in building, validating, and analyzing mathematical models of infectious disease spread while incorporating and being mindful of virus variants and waning immunity. Two students, Ella Smith and Kaitlyn McCready, are currently analyzing COVID-19 spread data from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) to understand trends and patterns that are filtered by age, ethnicity, and vaccination status. Two other students, David Rubel and Jared Pemberton, are working on modeling virus variants and waning immunity by utilizing advanced techniques from planar dynamical systems and distributed delay equations. This year, Rubel presented his work on virus variant models at the Michigan Academy of Science, Arts, and Letters (MASAL) conference at Andrews University in March, an AMS sectional meeting at Alma College in April, and at Lawrence Tech’s Research Day in April.

The grant helps foster a culture of research within the college as Johnston and LTU students aim to further understand the complex dynamics of why certain variants of diseases massively affect the population while others simply die out. To understand these phenomena, Johnston and his research students ask the following questions: “Is it strictly an arms race where the most transmissible strain wins out? Or are other factors like subtle variances in immune response, vaccine resistance, diagnostic detection, etc., able to tip the balances?” Understanding the roles of such variants and mapping out models will be crucial for guiding public policy as COVID-19 enters the endemic phase in the global population and will also offer guidance in case of another disease outbreak. In addition to better understanding outbreaks and disease control, Johnston hopes “working on the grant will stimulate some further student interest in mathematics and lead to curriculum development specifically in mathematical biology or mathematical epidemiology.”

It is no secret how involved students and faculty are in understanding the phenomena around us at LTU. Through research, constant curiosity, and a desire to find answers, such phenomena become tangible. The recent promotion to tenure allows Dr. Johnston to embark on research and foster an environment that welcomes inquisitiveness and curiosity amongst his students through countless grants and opportunities. Johnston is not only helping students comprehend and recognize complex topics in the classroom but also the complex inquiries and challenges we all face in the real world.

by Nurzahan Rahman