A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Spread by Vaccination Status

Speaker:  Matthew D. Johnston

In this talk, I will present some recent joint work with Drs. Pell and Nelson on the mathematics of COVID-19 spread. We introduce an n-stage vaccination model and corresponding system of differential equations which can simulate a disease outbreak by breaking the population down according to their vaccination status. This allows the mitigation effects of vaccination and accelerating effects of variants such as delta to be uncoupled from one another, and offers valuable insight for the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic. We fit the model to 2021 data from the Virginia Department of Health.

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